OPINION Emissions testing in the US faces several challenges as OEMs navigate the transition to new power sources, decreased consumer spending, changing political perspectives and financial uncertainties ver the last decade, OEMs have been transitioning from ICEs to BEVs. Global investments from OEMs are estimated to exceed US$860bn by 2030, of which nearly US$230bn is expected in the US alone (Gabriel, 2023, Atlas EV Hub ). Several breakthroughs in battery chemistry and e-motor technology, and exciting new vehicle options have contributed to the increased market presence of EVs. Due to increased vehicle costs caused by inflation, combined with the reduction of incentives for EVs, variations of HEVs are rapidly growing in popularity. Between 2027 and 2033, HEVs are forecast to sell more than ICEs and BEVs in the US, with PHEVs becoming the most important segment. Almost every OEM is working on bringing a PHEV variant to market. A phased approach to EVs is the scenario that has the highest likelihood to play out, as a drastic switch to complete EV or a rollback to ICE is not expected from any major OEM. The coming decade is expected to see OEMs compete fiercely in the ICE and EV segments to mitigate loss of market share. With the push for domestic manufacturing under President Trump’s Made in America initiative, we can expect increased developmental work in the US, which will require more extensive testing and certification. The industry must proactively prepare by expanding testing capacities to meet these evolving demands. OEMs must meet standards for initial certification and compliance of every vehicle model sold in the US. The In-Use Verification Program (IUVP) enables the US EPA and CARB to monitor the performance of vehicles on the road and ensure that they meet emissions standards. Vehicles are tested on a chassis dyno, with their emissions and energy consumption measured. The standard tailpipe tests for emissions include the Federal Test Procedure, Highway Fuel Economy Test and Supplemental Federal Test Procedures SC03 and US06. Although each test can be completed in minutes, the necessary preparatory steps and preconditioning increase the total duration for each vehicle to several days. An evaporative test must also be conducted to measure for off-gassing, Shyam Raman O which generally takes two to three days. The testing for EVs is much longer – over eight hours per vehicle – as the batteries must be fully charged and depleted in a single-cycle or multicycle test. HEV testing combines the requirements of both ICE and EV. A common assumption is that as BEV sales increase, the IUVP workload will decrease. However, BEVs take longer to test, and the dyno cell is captive until the test is completed. Plus, with the addition of more HEVs and PHEVs to the market, the number of test groups will increase, placing greater pressure on testing schedules. OEMs are forecast to be unable to meet this surge in demand internally and will increasingly rely on equipment vendors and external test agencies over the next decade. In anticipation, some OEMs have already begun expanding capacity at their facilities with new equipment, upgraded test cells and doubled lab shifts. As the industry transitions to e-powertrains, new test capabilities are being developed, with Michigan emerging as a central hub for this expansion. Notable examples include Subaru’s new tech center in Van Buren Township, GM’s Battery Lab in Warren, Ford’s Battery Benchmarking and Test Lab in Allen Park and Toyota’s upcoming BEV testing facility in York Township. While increased lab shifts can help to meet annual targets, dedicated equipment will have the highest impact on equipment use. OEMs that share development and emissions testing in the same facility are at the highest risk of increased test failures resulting from strained resources and equipment downtime. Those with dedicated infrastructure for regulatory testing will benefit from increased capacity to focus on new vehicle development and improve new product launches as streamlined capacity in emissions testing will lead to greater consistency in test outcomes. As the rest of the world embraces the move to EVs, the US auto industry will not want to be left behind. Changes to the EPA, CARB or their respective emissions standards stemming from the current political landscape in the USA are expected to delay this transition to EVs in the short term, but it seems highly unlikely that the global move to newer powertrains can be restrained. It is also expected that several processes will move upstream from regulatory agencies to OEMs. The real impact will be unprecedented workloads and increased test requirements for OEMs, emissions labs and testing value chain partners. As OEMs plan to increase lab capabilities, external vendors and test agencies must prepare for increased demand in sales and support. Shyam Raman is a principal consultant at Frost & Sullivan. A key member of the mobility team, he specializes in competitive benchmarking, market entry strategies and data analytics in the auto and transportation industries, focusing on EVs, supply chains and logistics. He works with OEMs, suppliers and government agencies, with an emphasis on the North American market 144 MARCH 2025 www.AutomotiveTestingTechnologyInternational.com
Automotive Testing Technology International March 2025: Page 144
